Dan Hannebery overran overwhelming favourite Nat Fyfe for this year’s AFL Coaches’ Association Champion Player of the Year Award. Can the same happen in the race for the competition’s most prestigious prize?
Hannebery may be considered the Swans’ best chance but there’s also another who threatens to either trump everyone for this year’s Brownlow Medal or start a tug-o-war with his counterpart for crucial votes.
That man is Josh Kennedy.
Hannebery, Kennedy and alike have made a habit of stealing votes from each other with the Swans polling the most votes of any other team for the past three seasons only to go home empty handed.
But, the fact remains the Sydney Swans/South Melbourne Football Club boasts the most Brownlow Medals of any club in the history of the game, including multiple winners Bob Skilton and Adam Goodes.
Goodes was the last Swan to take home a ‘Charlie’ (in 2006) while Lance Franklin finished third (discounting an ineligible Fyfe) last season.
Will we see another be added to the trophy cabinet on Monday night?
As the many Brownlow Medal predictors and previews start making the rounds, sydneyswans.com.au has chimed in by taking a closer look at the Swans’ two key contenders ahead of what’s tipped to be a close count.
Dan Hannebery
Hannebery is among the competition’s short-priced favourites to take out this year’s ‘Charlie’ after playing every game and enjoying arguably his best season to date.
Hannebery collected 21 votes to finish fifth in 2013. Statistically, the midfielder has performed better this season taking advantage of a big preseason and spending more time inside at the centre bounces to average 30 disposals a game.
A strong start to the season will see the 24-year-old jump out of the blocks with at least four best-on-ground performances predicted.
But, coinciding with the Swans’ drop off in form, Hannebery had a quieter middle period which might cost him valuable votes.
Kennedy’s incredible run of form from Round 14 onwards could also see the All Australian overlooked in favour of the competition’s clearance king when AFL chief Gill McLachlan reaches the business end of the count.
Champion Data predicts 24 votes (equal 2nd overall)
Josh Kennedy
Kennedy flew under the radar during the first half of the season, only to storm home to become the first player in the history of the game to record 30 or more possessions in 11 consecutive games.
It’s during that period where he’s poised to make a move with Kennedy expected to poll in at least six of those. But will it be a case of too little, too late for this year’s clearance king?
Calculations see Fyfe collecting 25 plus votes before Fremantle’s Round 12 bye so will Kennedy’s brilliant second half of the season be enough to slingshot the clearance king to within striking distance of the leaders?
The AFL world was left mystified when Kennedy missed out on an All Australian jumper despite averaging over 30 disposals a game.
But All Australian selection doesn’t always reflect how the Brownlow Medal pans out. Take West Coast’s Matt Priddis for example when the midfielder was left out of the side but took the individual honour – an omen perhaps?
Champion Data predicts 15 votes (equal 11th overall)
Keep an eye on…
Round 2 v Port Adelaide
Kennedy gathered 36 disposals and 11 clearances to spearhead the 48-point win at Adelaide Oval, trumping Kieren Jack (31 disposals and 10 clearances) for best on ground honours. Hannebery’s 28 touches and two goals would have also been looked at fondly by the umpires.
Round 3 v Greater Western Sydney
Expect Hannebery to win the three votes in this one thanks to 35 disposals and seven clearances. Isaac Heeney could earn his first career vote after starring with four goals while Lance Franklin finished with a bag of five.
Round 5 v Western Bulldogs
Tough to earn a vote in a losing side although Hannebery would be stiff to not earn at least one vote after gathering 37 possessions, 10 tackles and 13 inside 50s.
Round 6 v Melbourne
After a game-high 31 disposals, eight tackles, seven clearances and two goals this match has “Sydney, J. Kennedy, three votes” written all over it. Kurt Tippett might steal one for his four-goal-haul.
Round 8 v Hawthorn
A gutsy win curtailed by a gutsy performance from Hannebery with 36 disposals (15 of which were contested). Kennedy and Luke Parker were also impressive while Hawthorn’s Sam Mitchell (32 touches) should win a vote.
Round 10 v Gold Coast
Hannebery (career-high 42 disposals) and Jarrad McVeigh (39) had the footy on a string and, in 52-point win, will go 3-2. Tom Mitchell (33) and Dane Rampe (32) were also solid.
Round 14 v Port Adelaide
Kennedy was enormous for his 33 disposals, 11 clearances and two goals while Hannebery was also very good for his 34 touches in what was a narrow win at the SCG.
Round 15 v Brisbane
Kennedy won a season-high 41 possessions against Brisbane at the Gabba, a performance which will ultimately trump Hannebery (34 touches) for the best on ground accolade. The Lions’ ball winners might bring up the tail.
Round 21 v Greater Western Sydney
Described as a midfield masterclass, Kennedy’s standout performance (35 touches, 12 clearances, two goals) against the Giants should earn the three votes. Tippett’s five goals from the ruck will also be considered.
Round 22 v St Kilda
Despite recording nine consecutive matches of 30+ disposals, Kennedy didn’t slow down against the Saints after collecting 33 touches at Etihad Stadium. Although Hannebery (39 disposals) and Mitchell (34 disposals, two goals) might have a bit to say about the order of the votes.
