Think you’d make a good recruiter? After all, how hard can it be to watch a bunch of kids play football and pick one or two who can kick, mark and handball? Easy!

Maybe think again. Because it’s much harder than you think.

As Swans recruiting guru Kinnear Beatson and his team of talent scouts finalise plans for this week’s NAB AFL Draft it is a fascinating exercise to look back at the club’s history in the draft, and some of the hits and misses in what we call ‘recruiting’.

It’s a horribly imprecise science. Even to say it’s a hit and miss business is a gross over-simplifaction because to talk in hits and misses you need a pass mark. What is considered a satisfactory return on a draft selection?

The real students of the recruiting caper will tell you a first-round pick needs to deliver more than a second-round pick to get a tick, and a national draftee needs to do more than a rookie. And a Category ‘B’ rookie lured from another sport is an out-and-out punt and any half reasonable return is a big tick.

But that’s much too complicated, especially when you include mid-season drafts and pre-season supplementary selections, which have become part of the caper recently. So we’ll just talk in games.

Using Swans recruiting history as a benchmark, if you set 50 games as the satisfaction point the chances are one in five. Or 20.6% to be precise. At 100 games it’s 11.3%.

But the real eye-opener, and the deterrent for would-be recruiters, is the chance that a draftee will not play even one AFL game is 42%. And it’s a 61.9% chance that he won’t play more than 10 games.

All this is based on Swans numbers since the first official AFL draft in 1986. It takes in the national draft, the pre-season draft, the rookie draft, the mid-season draft, and everything else that has been part of what is a curiously complicated process.

In total, the Swans have drafted 326 players. Of them 137 did not play, 67 played 50 games or more and 39 played 100 games or more. Only 14 have topped 200 and only four – all from the national draft - have reached 300.

The Current List

Interestingly, among the 38 players currently on the Swans playing list, there are as many ex-rookies as there are national draftees. Sixteen of each, plus free agent Lance Franklin and trade-ins Josh Kennedy, Tom Hickey, Callum Sinclair and Ryan Clarke.

It’s all part of a fascinating Swans draft journey that, happily, has produced more hits then misses, and some of the best value-plus picks in AFL history.

The Draft That Wasn’t

Look on the AFL website, or in the AFL Guide, the ‘bible’ for all matters football, and it says the first AFL draft was on 26 November 1986, as the Brisbane Bears and the West Coast Eagles were preparing to join the competition in 1987.

The Bears were granted six pre-draft selections and first pick in each of five rounds of the draft. After them it was St.Kilda, Melbourne and Richmond, who had filled the bottom three spots on the 1986 ladder, through to premiers Hawthorn at #13.

The Eagles had been granted some exclusive home state selections but such was their talent pool that they were excluded from the draft, which delivered 65 players from across the country to the expanded 14-team competition.

It was draft history … or was it?

In fact, there were two previous drafts in 1981-82 which are curiously excluded from the records.

On 8 October 1981, and again on 19 October 1982, the then 12 Melbourne-based clubs in the old VFL each had two selections from interstate in reverse ladder order.

In ’81, having finished 9^th or fourth-bottom the Swans had pick #4 in the first round and pick #16 in the second round. They chose 20-year-old South Adelaide rover Mark Naley at #4 and 24-year-old teammate Phil Brooksby, a dour defender, at #16.

In ’82, having climbed to 7^th on the ladder, or sixth-bottom, the Swans went younger. They chose 18-year-old Sturt centreman Peter Motley at #6 and 16-year-old Port Adelaide wingman Greg Anderson at #18.

The Swans’ return from the four SA guns was nil. Such was the uncertain nature of the system at the time that not one of them even joined the club.

Naley later played 65 games with Carlton (1987-90), Anderson played 103 games with Essendon (1988-92) and Adelaide (1993-96) and Motley played 19 games with Carlton in 1986-87 before a car accident in May 1987 ended his playing days. Brooksby, father of recently-retired Gold Coast, West Coast and Hawthorn player, never ventured to Melbourne.

It was the norm. Of the 48 players drafted over the two years 24 did not play for the club that had chosen them, and the average return was 30.7 games. Hawthorn’s 258-game Brownlow Medallist John Platten was the standout, while there were five other 100-gamers.

Melbourne fared best, with Alan Johnson, pick #1 in 1981, playing 135 games, and Danny Hughes 124. Andrew Purser, pick #1 in 1982, played 112 games for what was then Footscray, David Palm played 104 games for Richmond, and David Grant 191 games for St.Kilda.

Craig Holden, later to play 80 games with the Swans (1984-88), got his entry ticket to the AFL via North Melbourne, where he played 29 games (1982-83).

The first ‘official’ draftee

It is one of the great Swans’ great trivia questions … who was the club’s first official draftee?

It was John Brinkhotter, a 185cm utility player from Barooga, a town of about 1800 on the Murray River located 596km south-west of Sydney which doesn’t have any great claim to footballing fame. Except that it is directly across the river from Cobden, which was home to Garry and Steve Hocking, and John Barnes, who between them played 675 games for Geelong and Essendon.

Brinkhotter, taken with pick #10, was one of five Swans draftees, followed by pick #23 Lyndon Dakin (Longford), #36 Donald Thompson (Albury), #49 Craig Elias (Eastlake) and #62 Laurie Menhenut (Tocumwal).

Only Brinkhotter played at AFL level. Player #1167 on the Swans all-time list, he debuted in Round 1 1988 against the Western Bulldogs at Waverley in coach Tom Hafey’s 501^st game. It was Glenn Coleman’s 100^th AFL game and the first game in red and white for Craig Davis and Michael Lockman as Mark Hunter and Matthew Hogg debuted for the Dogs.

With only two kicks, one mark, one handball, one tackle and a goal from his first outing in a 26-point loss he was dropped the following week and had to wait until the last game of the season for another chance.

But it was worth the wait. Facing Brisbane at Carrara, he had 20 possessions as they won by four points after trailed at every change.

In 1989 under Col Kinnear he played Rounds 12-13-14, including Rod Carter’s 200^th game for the Swans, but saw limited game time and had a combined six possessions. Career over.

The Best Swans Picks

Twenty-two Swans draftees have played 150-plus games for the club, so naturally they comprise the Swans best of the best draft ‘team’. There are 14 national draftees, including four first-round picks, seven players chosen inside 40, seven at 40 or beyond, and eight ex-rookies. And there are five current players.

Two teams delivered three players to top 22 – the NSW/ACT Rams’ Jarrad McVeigh, Keiren Jack and Lewis Roberts-Thomson, and SANFL club Norwood Heath Grundy, Jared Crouch and Nic Fosdike.

Other 100-game Swans draftees have been Jason Saddington (142), Craig Bird (137), Luke Ablett (133), Isaac Heeney (129), Paul Bevan (129), Lewis Jetta (127), Tom Papley (122), George Hewett (120), Amon Buchanan (116), Callum Mills (110), Mike Pyke (110) and Gary Rohan (106).

Goodes: The Misnomer

Outwardly, Swans games record-holder Adam Goodes, drafted at pick #43 in 1997, looks like the bargain of a life-time. Easily the Swans’ best. But, almost as if to prove the complicated nature of the draft business, the 372-game megachampion is a draft misnomer.

It’s a fascinating re-draft. Goodes was drafted as a 17-year-old in a year when each club could only take one 17-year-old. A key part of the strategy of each club was when to play that card.

The Swans watched six early picks go on bottom-agers before taking 18-year-old Jason Saddington at #11. With their next pick not until #40, they chose to get one in the bank.

By pick #29 only Sydney, West Coast and St.Kilda still had their 17-year-old pick up their sleeve. Sydney had #40 and #43, West Coast had #44 and St.Kilda #48. And in between Port had #42 and Hawthorn #43.

The Swans had the Eagles and the Saints covered but needed to take the next best 18-year-old ahead of the Power and the Hawks.

So, they used #40 on Fred Campbell, a 175cm speedster from Pioneers in Alice Springs knowing Goodes, a standing in the North Ballarat Rebels’ TAC Cup grand final win, was in the bank at #43.

He was the 14^th of the 17-year-olds drafted and in an uncompromised draft would undoubtedly have gone much higher than #43.

As it turned out, Campbell, who played five games for Sydney in 1999 and seven with St.Kilda in 2000, went three spots ahead of a dual Brownlow Medallist 9^th on the League’s all-time AFL list.

Fools’ Gold ?

In 35 years of the National Draft two of the Swans’ best early draft hands didn’t amount to anything like they may have.

In 1993, with their only #1 pick, the Swans took South Fremantle defender Darren Gasper. He debuted in Round 3 1994 only to suffer a 12-week knee injury 60 minutes into his AFL career. He played four games later that season and 16 in 1994 before he was lured south by Richmond, where he played a further 12 years and 207 games. He joined the Tigers via pick #3 in the 1996 Pre-Season Draft. The Swans got nothing for him.

In 1994 the Swans had picks #2 and #3. After Fremantle took Jeff White at #1 they snared Anthony Rocca from the Northern Knights at #2 and Shannon Grant from the Western Jets at #3. And from them they got five years and 80 games.

Rocca, whose older brother Sav was playing with Collingwood at the time, spoke of home sickness almost from day one and later admitted his heart was “not completely in it” in Sydney. Played 22 games in two years before a trade to the Magpies for Ben Wilson, Mark Orchard and picks #14 and #33 in the 1996 National Draft.

Wilson, who had played two games with Collingwood, played four with Sydney. Orchard, a 12-game Magpies before the trade, played 41 games with Sydney in 1997-98 before going back to Collingwood.

The Swans used the draft picks on Prahran Dragons pair Brett O’Farrell (#14) and Will Sangster (#33). O’Farrell played eight games in Sydney in 1998 before 13 games with Hawthorn from 1999-2001. Sangster played two games in 1999.

Rocca played 220 games for Collingwood and kicked 404 goals over 13 years to rank 9^th on the club’s all-time goals list.

Grant played three years 58 games in red and white, including the 1996 grand final loss to North Melbourne, but just as he was set to deliver on his unquestioned potential he got the ‘go home’ bug from Rocca.

Insistent he would not stay in the Harbour City, he was traded to North for veteran Wayne Schwass. And as much as Schwass was a great pick-up for the Swans, playing 98 games in four and a half years and winning the Bob Skilton Medal and All-Australian honors in 1999, Grant played 243 games over 11 years for North and won the Norm Smith Medal in their 1999 premiership.

Gasper, Rocca and Grant were three of 34 first-round picks used by the Swans in the National Draft.

The Best Draft Year?

Only once have the Swans picked up three 100-gamers in the same draft – it was in 2009 when they got Gary Rohan (106 games) at #6, Lewis Jetta (127 games) at #14 and Sam Reid (163 games and counting at #38.

But it’s a tough call. There have been some wonderful pairings to join the club in the same year.

In 1994 #40 Michael O’Loughlin (303 games) and pick #21 Matthew Nicks (175 games) made up for the disappointing return on #2 Anthony Rocca, #3 Shannon Grant and #20 Stuart Mangin (did not play), while the 1997 duo of #11 Jason Saddington (142) and #43 Adam Goodes (372) topped their combined output.

The 1998 duo of #8 Jude Bolton (325) and #3 Nic Fosdike (163) were strong despite the fact it could have been an even bigger year if Ryan Fitzgerald, pick #4 turned national radio personality, had played more than 10 games after kicking five goals on debut.

In 2002 the Swans hit double gold when at #5 they landed 325-gamer Jarrad McVeigh and at #62 picked up Nick Malceski, who rebounded for major recurring knee problems to kick the winning goal in the 2012 grand final.

The standout rookie draft is clear – it was the 2013 draft curiously held in December 2012 when Dane Rampe (190) and Jake Lloyd (176) joined the Swans with Xavier Richards, who only played 12 games but did appear in the 2016 grand final, and 28-game ruckman Sam Naismith, who is still battling on.

And current pairings? Time will judge the 2016 pairing of Ollie Florent and Will Hayward, the 2018 trio of Nick Blakey, James Rowbottom and Justin McInerney and the 2020 trio of  Logan McDonald, Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden.

Raging Rookies in Red

A total of 128 AFL players have played 100+ AFL games after beginning their career as rookies. The Swans, with 11, have more than any other club, with Fremantle (9) and Adelaide (9) next best.

The all-time rookie honour board is headed by the Western Bulldogs Matthew Boyd (292 games) from West Coast’s Dean Cox (290) at St.Kilda’s Stephen Milne (275), and has Swans’ Heath Grundy and Kieren Jack equal 9^th at 256 games. Brett Kirk (241) is 12^th and Nick Smith (211) is 26^th among 40 ex-rookies who have topped 200 games.

Tadhg Kennelly (197) is next on the Swans list from Dane Rampe (190), Jake Lloyd (176), Harry Cunningham (151), Paul Bevan (129), Tom Papley (122) and Mike Pyke (110).

Remember These Names?

They weren’t all a raging success – in fact most were downright flops - but through the 1990s the Swans drafted some of the biggest names in the game in search of some extra public appeal.

In 1992 they took Phil Krakouer at #53 after 141 games at North and seven games at Footscray but he retired and went home to Perth.

In 1993 it was Fitzroy great Richard Osborne at #1 in tandem with Paul Bryce at #3 and former #1 draft pick John Hutton at #5. Osborne kicked seven goals in his first game for the club and in 16 games he totalled 58, with eight games of four or more. But he quit thereafter, going on to play three years at Footscray and two years at Collingwood.

Bryce, a 74-game veteran with North Melbourne and Melbourne, played 17 games in 1993 and retired. And Hutton, pick #1 to Brisbane in 1991, played only five Swans games for nine goals before being de-listed. He later played 13 games at Fremantle. Three years, three clubs and 36 games.

In the 1993 mid-season draft the Swans even had a crack at 1985 Brownlow Medallist Brad Hardie, but going on 31 he decided 150 games with Footscray, Brisbane and Collingwood was enough.

In 1994 it was Dermott Brereton. The five-time Hawthorn premiership ace was pick #1 in the Pre-Season Draft. He had his 30^th birthday during a seven-game stint in Sydney but little else positive. He copped a seven-game suspension pre-season for stomping on the head of ex-teammate Rayden Tallis in a pre-season game and was delisted after he copped another seven-game stretch following an incident in which Richmond’s Tony Free suffered a broken jaw. He played 15 games with Collingwood in 1995.

In 1995 the Swans got one right when they snared Paul Roos with pick #1 in the Pre-Season Draft. The man who would later coach the club to a drought-breaking flag in 2005, was value-plus through 87 games in four years, including the 1996 grand final.

It could have been a double whammy for future AFL coaches, with Ross Lyon originally set to follow ex-Fitzroy teammate Roos to Sydney until the AFL ruled the club had insufficient salary cap space. Instead Lyon, later to coach St.Kilda and Fremantle, went to Brisbane and played two games.

In 2001 ex-Melbourne star Stephen Tingay was the last of the so-called big names to head to Sydney. The 162-game wingman was too badly banged up and never played in red and white.

Nine Years On …

This is an odd one. Four players drafted by the Swans in the 2013 National Draft will all play against the Swans this year – pick #15 Zak Jones, #32 George Hewett, #35 Toby Nankervis and #44 Aliir Aliir.

You can watch the draft live on AFL.com.au from 6.30pm and follow all the Swans selections on our social media channels, website and app.

This news is brought to you by ELMO Software, the club's official list and recruiting partner.