Just what do the Sydney Swans stand to gain via pick 3 in the 2020 AFL National Draft next week?

The numbers say the player chosen at #3 will better 150 games and is a 42 percent chance of reaching 200 games but only a 4 percent chance of getting to 300 games.

He’s a 39 percent chance of winning an AFL premiership, a two in 34 chance of winning a Brownlow Medal and a one in 34 chance of winning a Norm Smith Medal.

And, if you were inclined to look beyond the playing field, he is a one in 34 chance of being an AFL club Chief Executive or a recruiting boss turned football chief.

That is according to the averages of the career records and post-football achievements of 34 players chosen at #3 since the first national draft in 1986, including 12 players still playing in the AFL.

It is a field headed by Chris Judd, who was pick #3 in 2001 behind Luke Hodge and Luke Ball, and Dustin Martin, who was pick #3 in 2009 behind Tom Scully and Jack Trengove.

Between them Judd and the still brilliant Martin have played 543 games and kicked 500 goals. They’ve won four premierships (one as captain), four Norm Smith Medals and three Brownlow Medals, finished top 10 in the Brownlow Medal 13 times, and polled a total of 401 Brownlow votes.

Plus, they’ve won 10 All-Australian selections, three Leigh Matthews Trophies as the AFLPA Player of the Year and seven club best & fairest awards.

Both are undeniable examples of how the right pick at #3 in the draft can be such big thing. And can make such an enormous difference over a prolonged period.  

The Swans have had pick #3 in the national draft only three times – Shannon Grant in 1994, Nic Fosdike in 1998 and Callum Mills in 2015.

Grant’s 301 games for Sydney and North Melbourne is the most by a player drafted at pick #3, ahead of Judd’s 279, Stephen Febey’s 258 and Ryan Griffen’s 257.

The pick #3 premiership honor roll includes Judd, Martin, Grant, Fosdike, Graham Wright, Trent Croad, Alan Didak, Xavier Ellis and Chris Masten.

Wright, a Collingwood 201-gamer, is the pick #3 who is now the Hawthorn football boss, while the #3 pick who went on to be CEO at North Melbourne was Carl Dilena, a 33-gamer at Fitzroy and North.

The 34 players chosen at #3 in the AFL draft since its inception in 1986, together with their club of origin, AFL games and AFL clubs, are: