If there is a defining statistic for an AFL ‘bull’ like Josh Kennedy it is contested possessions in finals. When the really tough players go to work where it matters most and when the stakes are highest.
As the Swans and the AFL prepare to bid farewell to one of the all-time great inside midfielders there is a stunning statistic which, on top of everything else, confirms why the 34-year-old is so highly regarded across the entire competition.
Since the AFL introduced statistics for contested possessions in 1999 Kennedy is king. The all-time leader. A Hall of Famer in waiting. And in finals he is even more dominant.
Since ’99 only 13 players in the AFL have had 15-plus possessions in a final four times or more.
In escalating order, designed for a suitable climax, Simon Black, Ollie Wines and Clayton Oliver have had four finals of 15 or more contested possessions.
Also, on a list littered with Brownlow Medallists, Scott Pendlebury, Lachie Neale and Daniel Kerr have had five, Dane Swan and Matt Priddis six, Chris Judd, Nat Fyfe and Joel Selwood seven and Patrick Dangerfield 10.
Kennedy? He has had 15+ contested possessions in a final a staggering 16 times.
On a final-by-final basis from his first final in 2010 to his 22nd final in 2018, his contested possession tally was 17-17-10-25-21-19-15-17-14-14-13-17-15-16-15-20-21-15-17-18-12-10.
His best was 25 contested possessions in the 2011 semi-final against Hawthorn, when he had 10 kicks and 25 handballs for 35 possessions, and a career-best 16 clearances in a desperate bid to get his side a win in Adam Goodes’ 300th game. Sadly, they lost by 36 points.
If you stretch the cut-off mark for this comparison from 15+ contested possessions in a final to 20+ it’s even more compelling – 16 players have done it once, Selwood has done it twice, and Kennedy has reached this extraordinary mark four times.
They are numbers that don’t lie. Yet they are just the upper layer of a statistical CV the champion midfielder has put together since he wore the #12 Swans jumper for the first time in Round 1, 2010.
It was Sydney v St Kilda at the Olympic Stadium on Saturday, March 27. Lewis Jetta made his AFL debut and Shane Mumford, Ben McGlynn, Mark Seaby and Daniel Bradshaw joined Kennedy in his Swans debut.
After the Swans kicked the first two goals the Saints kicked the next five. They led by nine points at the first change, seven at the second and 20 at the last. And after the Swans pulled to within two points 12 minute into the final quarter the visitors steadied to win 15.6 (96) to 13.10 (88).
Kennedy, 280 days beyond his 21st birthday and playing his 15th AFL game after 14 games with Hawthorn in 2008-09, had only 68 per cent game time yet had 18 possessions (10 contested), four tackles and two clearances.
It was a massive weekend in football. Among 22 AFL debutants were Dustin Martin, Luke Shuey, Mitch Duncan and Tom Scully. And among 24 players wearing new colors for the first time like Kennedy were ex-Swans Barry Hall (Western Bulldogs), Darren Jolly (Collingwood) and Amon Buchanan (Brisbane), plus Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson (Hawthorn), Brendan Fevola (Brisbane) and Luke Ball (Collingwood).
Damien Hardwick (Richmond) and Brad Scott (North) made their AFL coaching debut for the first time in a round of matches which featured only 28 other players still in the AFL system this year.
Among them, the ‘other’ Josh Kennedy, David Mundy, Jarryn Geary and Ben McEvoy, like the Swans’ Kennedy, have already announced their retirement effective at the end of the season.
The others were Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Jack Riewoldt and Martin at Richmond, Mitch Robinson at Carlton, Mitch Duncan, Tom Hawkins and Joel Selwood at Geelong, Daniel Rich and Jack Redden at Brisbane, Shannon Hurn, Nic Naitanui and Shuey at West Coast, Travis Boak at Port, Todd Goldstein and Jack Ziebell at North, Dangerfield, Rory Sloane and Taylor Walker at Adelaide.
Since that day Kennedy has played 277 games for the Swans, including 22 finals, to amass 7137 possessions at an average of 25.77. He’s had 3902 contested possessions at 14.09 per game, plus 153 goals, 1433 tackles, 1771 clearances and 38 goal assists. Plus 146 Brownlow Medal votes.
And while his character, leadership, resilience and team-first ethos are attributes about which so many have and will talk so glowingly, this is about the numbers.
In the era of Kennedy at the Swans 78 other players have played 200-plus AFL games. Only Selwood (280) and Hawkins (279) have played more games, and only Selwood (28), Hawkins (26), Harry Taylor (25), Dan Hannebery (24), Mitch Duncan (23) and Isaac Smith (23) have played more finals.
Among the elite of the elite of his time, Kennedy ranks with the very best in his speciality areas. He is #1 overall in average contested possessions and average clearances, 7th in average possessions, 9th in average tackles and equal 9th in Brownlow votes.
Top 10 details for 200-game players of the Kennedy/Swans era are:
Average Possessions: Kennedy’s 25.77 game average ranks 7th behind only Jack Macrae (28.88), Adam Treloar (27.58), Scott Pendlebury (27.30), Lachie Neale (27.28), Rory Laird (26.88) and Andrew Gaff (26.42), and ahead of Tom Rockliff (25.74), Ollie Wines (25.56) and Nathan Fyfe (25.00).
Average Contested Possessions: Kennedy’s 14.07 game average is top of the list from Nat Fyfe (14.00), Patrick Dangerfield (13.94), Lachie Neale (12.96), Ben Cunnington (12.19), Ollie Wines (12.12), Joel Selwood (11.86), Rory Sloane (11.60), Luke Parker (11.53) and Scott Pendlebury (11.40).
Average Clearances: Kennedy’s 6.39 game average is again top of the list from Lachie Neale (6.00), Ben Cunnington (5.75), Patrick Dangerfield (5.73), Joel Selwood and Luke Shuey (5.61), Nathan Fyfe (5.53), Ollie Wines (5.21), Trent Cotchin (5.11), David Mundy (5.06).
Average Tackles: Kennedy’s game average of 5.17 is 9th behind Dayne Zorko (5.67), Liam Shiels (5.66), Tom Rockliff (5.64), Jack Redden (5.55), Rory Sloane (5.51), Brad Ebert (5.36), Joel Selwood (5.31) and Scott Pendlebury (5.21). Ed Curnow (5.13) completes the top 10 and Luke Parker (5.03) is 11th.
Average Brownlow Medal Votes: Averaging 0.57 votes per eligible game, Kennedy is equal 9th on a list headed by Nathan Fyfe (0.95), Patrick Dangerfield (0.91), Dustin Martin (0.80), Joel Selwood (0.69), Lance Franklin (0.67), Lachie Neale (0.63) and Travis Boak (0.59), and level with Trent Cotchin. Daniel Hannebery (0.55) is 12th and Luke Parker (0.53) is 13th.
In finals Kennedy is a clear leader in average contested possessions at 16.27 per game, ranks 2nd to Jack Macrae for average possessions at 28.9, 2nd to Ben Cunnington in average clearances at 6.9, 6th in average tackles behind Tom Rockliff, Liam Shiels, Brad Ebert, Selwood and Pendlebury at 5.5.
In the six-year block from 2012-17 Kennedy polled 116 Brownlow votes – 19-14-21-25-14-23. He was 4th in 2015 and 2017, equal 5th in 2014 and 7th in 2012. He was equal 19th in 2013 (five votes outside the top 10), and equal 23rd in 2016 (six votes outside the top 10).
In the same period only Dangerfield polled more votes with 156. Dustin Martin also polled 116, with Nat Fyfe (107), Selwood (106), Pendlebury, Sam Mitchell, Gary Ablett (99), Cotchin (97), Matt Priddis (96) and Dan Hannebery (95) completing the top bracket.
During his time with the Swans Kennedy was chosen in the 40-man All-Australian squad six times. He made the team in 2012, ’14 and ‘16 and the squad only in 2013, ’15, and ‘17.
In the same period only five players were top 40 more often – Pendlebury (10), Lance Franklin (9), Dangerfield (8), Dustin Martin (7) and Selwood (7).
Likewise, Kennedy’s record in the Bob Skilton Medal in Sydney is extraordinary. From 2010-20 he finished 3-T2-1-3-2-1-1-4-5-10-8 before missing the top 10 for the first time in 2021.
For comparison purposes, corresponding records for some of the League’s very best from 2010-12 are (X denotes a finish outside top 10, T denotes a tie):
Joel Selwood: 1-T6-2-1-1-3-2-4-5-9-X-8
Patrick Dangerfield: X-5-2-T3-3-1-1-1-T2-1-4-X
Dustin Martin: 3-T10-2-3-2-1-1-3-6-2-T5
Scott Pendlebury: 2-1-2-1-1-1-1-T6-3-2-2-3
Nathan Fyfe: X-2-X-1-1-4-X-3-3-1-2-7
Travis Boak: 4-T1-T8-2-2-4-5-9-9-1-2-2
Trent Cotchin: 7-1-1-5-1-T6-3-4-7-X-10-T10
Luke Parker, who played 13 and 19 games respectively in his first two seasons in 2011-12, has put together a similarly impressive record from 2013 which reads 6-1-7-4-1-2-3-2-1.
